Expectations for population growth at new breeding locations for the vulnerable New Zealand sea lion (Phocarctos hookeri) using a simulation model

Management plans for threatened or recovering large vertebrate species that are increasing in population size and range focus on the establishment of viable populations within set temporal limits. New Zealand (Hookers) sea lions (Phocarctos hookeri) were declared a threatened species in 1997, and New Zealand legislation requires that threatened species of marine mammals must be managed to reduce human-induced mortality and achieve a non-threatened status within 20 years. The present breeding distribution of P. hookeri is highly localised, with over 95% of total annual pup production located at Auckland Islands and almost all of the remainder at Campbell Island. Breeding elsewhere has been ephemeral or restricted to <10 adult females. The only recorded sustainable breeding at a new location has been at Otago, South Island, New Zealand. This breeding population consisted of a total of four breeding females in 2002 and is derived from one immigrant female that gave birth to her first pup in the 1993/1994 breeding season. The New Zealand Department of Conservation management plan specifies that to achieve a non-threatened status P. hookeri (1) at Otago must increase in the number of breeding females to ?10, and (2) must establish ?two new breeding locations within the 20-year time frame, each with ?10 breeding females. This study 1) projects the population growth trends at a new location (Otago) to see if it will achieve ?10 breeding females within the legislated time frame, and (2) examines the likelihood that other breeding locations will establish elsewhere given the demographic information available for this species. We present 20 deterministic and three stochastic Leslie matrix model scenarios for female population growth for the initial years following the start of breeding at a new location. Our results indicate that (1) a new breeding population derived from one immigrant female is unlikely to reach 10 breeding females in 20 years; this duration is more likely to be 23-41 years (deterministic models) or 23-26 years (stochastic model), (2) the likelihood of two new sites establishing within 20 years is unquantifiable, but the probability is low, and (3) if the legislated outcome and time limit are not revised in the population management plan, the feasibility and effectiveness of re-locating young females could be investigated.     

模拟自然条件下黄土区坡地的大气、土表及土壤水交互作用的动力学模型及其应用

The mechanism of atmospheric,surface and soil water interactions( water transformation) in hillslope under natural conditions was analyzed,and a dynamic model was developed to simulate infiltration,overland flow and soil water movement during natural rainfall in hillslope,by bringing froward concepts such as rainfall intensity on slope and a correction coefficient of saturated soil water content for soil surface seal.Some factors,including slope angle,slope orientation and raindrop inclination,which affect the rainfall amount on slope, were taken into account while developing the dynamic model.The effect of surface seal on infiltration and water balance under a boundary condition of the second kind was aslo considered. Application of the model in a field experiment showed that the model simulated precisely the infiltration,overland flow and sol water monvement in hillsope under natural rainfall conditions.     

黄土高原旱地不同施肥对土壤肥力与产量的影响

Long-term fertility experiments have become an important tool for investigating the sustainability of cropping systems. Therefore, a long-term (18-year) fertilization experiment was conducted in Changwu County, Shaanxi Province, China, to ascertain the effect of the long-term application of chemical fertilizers and manure on wheat yield and soil fertility in the Loess Plateau, so as to provide a scientific basis for sustainable land management. The experiment consisted of nine fertilizer treatments with three replicates arranged in a completely randomized design: 1) CK (no fertilizer); 2) N (N 120 kg ha-1); 3) P (P 26.2 kg ha-1); 4) NP (N 120, P 26.2 kg ha-1-2); 5) M (manure 75 t ha-1); 6) NM (N 120 kg ha-1, manure 75 t ha-1); 7) PM (P 26.2 kg ha-1, manure 75 t ha-1); 8) NPM (N 120 , P 26.2 kg ha-1, manure 75 t ha-1); and 9) fallow (no fertilizer, no crop). N fertilizer was applied in the form of urea and P was applied as calcium super phosphate. The results showed that precipitation had a large effect on the response of wheat yield to fertilization. Manure (M), NP, PM, NM, and NPM treatments significantly increased (P < 0.05) average yield. In the NP, PM, NM and NPM treatments, the percentage increases in yield due to fertilization were highest in normal years, and lowest in the drought years. Long-term P application enhanced soil available P markedly, and manure applications contributed more to soil fertility than chemical fertilizers alone. Chemical fertilizers applied together with manure distinctly improved soil fertility. The results also showed that the soil nutrient concentration changed mainly in the 0--60 cm layers and fertilization and planting only slightly affected soil nutrients below the 100 cm layers.     

Use of a population model to assess the impact of longline fishing on wandering albatross Diomedea exulans populations

An age-structured model of a wandering albatross Diomedea exulans population is developed to stimulate population trends over time, using demographic parameters from the population at Possession Island, Crozets, during 1968–1986. The simulation results portray a population decreasing at a rate of 2·29% per year, which concurs with global population trends. Sensitivity analyses of model parameters indicate that both adult and juvenile mortality are contributing to the decrease. Wandering albatross mortality is presumed to have increased as a result of deaths caused by longline fishing vessels; such deaths are likely to be relatively more frequent among young, naive birds. The model is used to investigate the potential impacts of new longline fisheries such as that for Patagonian toothfish Dissostichus eleginoides in Antarctica. Assuming longline fishing operations affect juveniles more than adults, there is a time lag of 5–10 years before further decreases in population numbers are reflected in the breeding population. Also, because wandering albatrosses are long-lived, population growth rates take approximately 30–50 years to stabilize after a perturbation. Consequently, caution must be exercised when interpreting population trends; short-term (<20 year) estimates may not provide good indications of long-term trends.     

秸秆还田对灌溉玉米田土壤反硝化及N2O排放的影响

运用乙炔抑制技术研究了不同施氮水平下秸秆还田对灌溉玉米田土壤反硝化反应和氧化亚氮(N2O)排放的影响。结果表明,土壤反硝化速率及N2O的排放受氮肥施用、秸秆处理方式及其交互作用的显著影响。与秸秆燃烧相比,不施氮或低施氮水平时,秸秆还田可刺激培养初期反硝化反应速率及N2O排放,增加培养期间N2O平均排放通量;高施氮水平时,秸秆还田可降低反硝化反应速率及反硝化过程中的N2O排放。秸秆还田可降低反硝化中N2O/N2的比例。     

Logistic模型模拟乙醇发酵产物动力学

乙醇发酵产物动力学的研究有助于更好的认识发酵过程,为其工业放大及生产操作条件的优化提供理论基础。基于Logistic方程的菌体生长动力学模型可较好的描述细胞生长期及细胞自身抑制作用,但由于该模型方程中的比例参数与积分常数没有明显的生物学意义,使其应用受到了限制。该文从生物学与化学工程学结合角度对Logistic模型方程重新参数化,将发酵产物乙醇生成动力学与酵母生长动力学方程类比,给出了乙醇浓度的显式函数模型,模型中不再出现酵母菌浓度变量,大大简化了模型,并且赋予参数其物理意义;在研究了以葡萄糖和玉米淀粉为原料乙醇质量浓度、总糖质量浓度在不同底物质量浓度和料液比条件下随发酵时间的变化规律的基础上运用该模型拟合了以葡萄糖和玉米淀粉为原料进行乙醇发酵的试验数据,结果表明:模型值与试验数据具有较好一致性,拟合度均大于0.97,可见该重新参数化的Logistic模型可以描述发酵生产乙醇过程中产物乙醇的动力学行为,具有预测工业上实际发酵过程中乙醇浓度的潜力。     

利用人工神经网络以及相关地形属性绘制数字土壤地图

Detailed soil surveys involve costly and time-consuming work and require expert knowledge. Since soil surveys provide information to meet a wide range of needs, new methods are necessary to map soils quickly and accurately. In this study, multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (ANNs) were developed to map soil units using digital elevation model (DEM) attributes. Several optimal ANNs were produced based on a number of input data and hidden units. The approach used test and validation areas to calculate the accuracy of interpolated and extrapolated data. The results showed that the system and level of soil classification employed had a direct effect on the accuracy of the results. At the lowest level, smaller errors were observed with the World Reference Base (WRB) classification criteria than the Soil Taxonomy (ST) system, but more soil classes could be predicted when using ST (7 soils in the case of ST vs. 5 with WRB). Training errors were below 11% for all the ANN models applied, while the test error (interpolation error) and validation error (extrapolation error) were as high as 50% and 70%, respectively. As expected, soil prediction using a higher level of classification presented a better overall level of accuracy. To obtain better predictions, in addition to DEM attributes, data related to landforms and/or lithology as soil-forming factors, should be used as ANN input data.     

黄河流域陕西片土壤侵蚀预报模型研究

以气候、地质、地形、植被及人类活动 5类因素中的 6个因子为预报因子 ,以陕西黄河流域水蚀区内 5大类型区中 3 3条小流域的实验观测资料和实地调查资料及有关科研单位的研究成果为基础 ,建立了适用于该区域的土壤侵蚀预报模型。据运用该模型对本区域内 4条小流域水土保持遥感普查成果和建模所用 3 3条小流域土壤侵蚀模数进行验证 ,证明该模型具有较高的精度 ,可以在陕西黄河流域水蚀区及条件相近的其他地区推广应用     

Bird communities, roads and development: prospects and constraints of applying empirical models

Our objectives were to explain the prospects and constraints of applying empirical models that relate bird community metrics to broad-scale characteristics of roads and development. We explored the practical value of regression models that were derived for a large protected area in the Chihuahuan Desert. These models related bird species richness, relative abundance, or probability of occurrence to total length of roads within each of two spatial extents (1- and 2-km radii), distance to the nearest road, distance to the nearest development, or the two-way interactions of these variables. Empirical models can be used to inform conservation decisions, to parameterise simulation models for conservation planning, to identify threshold levels of road and development variables, and to determine the focus of management experiments for confirmatory hypothesis testing and improvement of model realism.